The Cloudy Crystal Ball

Written on 10/07/2010 by Jim Cerny

With the puck dropping on the 2010-11 NHL season today (Yes! Finally!!) I might as well dust off the ol' crystal ball to make a few predictions.

Warning!!! Do not even think of running to Vegas or to your local bookie and lay any cash on these predictions. Past performance has proven that this crystal ball can be quite cloudy...

Though I will pat myself on the back and remind you that last October I did have the Flyers representing the Eastern Conference in the Stanley Cup Finals. Of course there is no way I could have accurately predicted the bumpy road it took for Philly to arrive at that point, but in this case the end justified the means.

Of course I also had the Canucks in the Finals, and, well, we know how good a prediction that was.

In all I had 12 of 16 playoff teams predicted correctly.

But that's in the past, let's look ahead to 2010-11. And since it is likely those of you reading this are hockey fanatics and have read every hockey blog and magazine and watched every NHL preview show, I won't bore you with too many details as to why my picks are my picks.

So here goes....

Eastern Conference:

These 4 teams are locks: Washington Capitals, Pittsburgh Penguins, New Jersey Devils, and Philadelphia Flyers.

These 4 teams will fight their way in: Boston Bruins, Ottawa Senators, Tampa Bay Lightning, New York Rangers.

These 3 teams will just miss out: Buffalo Sabres, Carolina Hurricanes, and Montreal Canadiens.

These 2 teams will be better, but not good enough: Atlanta Thrashers and Toronto Maple Leafs.

These 2 teams will continue to struggle: New York Islanders and Florida Panthers.

Western Conference:

These 5 teams are locks: Vancouver Canucks, Detroit Red Wings, Chicago Blackhawks, Los Angeles Kings, and San Jose Sharks.

These 3 teams will fight their way in: St. Louis Blues, Nashville Predators, and Phoenix Coyotes.

These 2 teams will just miss out: Colorado Avalanche and Calgary Flames.

These 2 teams will be improved, but not good enough: Columbus Blue Jackets and Edmonton Oilers.

These 3 teams are just not good enough, period: Anaheim Ducks, Minnesota Wild, and Dallas Stars.

In the Stanley Cup Finals I see the Pittsburgh Penguins, still young and talented and now extra motivated after last year's playoff failure, returning to represent the East just as they did in 2007-08 and 2008-09; but out West the answer is not as clear-cut in my mind. My gut tells me Vancouver...but I hate agreeing with almost every other pundit out there, most of whom are saying that this is finally the Canucks year. I can see Detroit, if they remain healthy, making another run. And I don't count out the Blackhawks, as most everyone else has, despite the dismantling of the lower half of the champs' roster. In the end, though, I'll have to say.....

Stanley Cup Finals: Penguins vs. Canucks

Follow me on Twitter at: @jimcerny and @thenyrangers

Posted in 2010-11 Predictions, NHL, Pittsburgh Penguins, Rink Rap, Vancouver Canucks | Comment Now!

Disallowed Goal Not Canucks Biggest Problem

Written on 4/20/2010 by Jim Cerny

OK, let me get this out there right away. The Vancouver Canucks do not trail the Los Angeles Kings 2-1 in their best-of-seven because Daniel Sedin had a goal waved off last night, video review from Toronto ruling he kicked the puck into the net.

Vancouver trails LA because their star goalie has not been good enough, the club as a whole has taken a bunch of undisciplined penalties, and the penalty kill has been strafed by the Kings power play.

One video review, as major a decision as it was, is not the difference here.

I know my friends in Vancouver, who loved me when I predicted a Canucks Cup right here back in early October, do not agree, nor do they love me any more. But if you watch these games objectively, as I do, you can't fail to see the Canucks shortcomings, so far.

For those of you who have yet to see it, here is the replay of the Sedin disallowed goal. That's a 50-50 call which likely could go either way. I think Mike Murphy in Toronto got it right disallowing the goal. Sedin is driving hard to the net, but it does seem like he is looking down to where puck and skates are going to meet, and clearly directs the puck in that way.

The thing is, slow motion shows you things more clearly, and leads you to believe Sedin knew what he was doing in directing the puck in with his skate. But in real-time, that play happens so fast, it's hard to imagine that the hard-driving Sedin could think and react so quickly. 50-50 call either way.

Nevertheless, the Canucks rebounded to score a bit more than a minute after the disallowed goal to pull within 4-3 of the Kings before eventually losing 5-3. Had Luongo not allowed 4 goals on 16 shots, nor had the Canucks not surrendered three goals on three power play chances for LA, things might have been different, and that's where Vancouver needs to focus heading into Game Four.

For the Canucks to win, Luongo needs to be much better, and Vancouver has to find a way to silence the Kings power play, which is now a whopping 7-12 in the series.

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Some other quick playoff thoughts:

I understood, and totally agreed with, Bruce Boudreau's decision to replace Jose Theodore in goal with Semyon Varlamov, and not just because the kid played so well last night, especially dazzling in the first period up in Montreal. Theodore was No. 1 much of this year by default because Varlamov was hurt much of the time. Switching from one to the other here, just like during the Caps first round series against the Rangers a year ago, is easy to digest on the ice and in the dressing room because neither goalie is the clear-cut No. 1.

However, I believe Montreal's Jacques Martin needs to go back to Jaroslav Halak in Game Four, despite pulling him during last night's loss in favor of Carey Price. At one point in time, Halak and Price were even on the depth chart, no clear-cut No. 1 like in Washington. But over the course of the year Halak claimed that top spot while Price, the favored son, did not. This is Halak's team now and he should be back in their starting Game 4 at the Bell Centre trying to even up that best-of-seven.

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By the way, how much fun to watch is that Caps-Canadiens series? Offense, offense, and more offense. Great skating, back-and-forth action, scintillating fun.

I'm not sure you win a Stanley Cup playing this way, but I know I am enjoying watching it!

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I think my favorite player to watch in this post-season is Phoenix captain Shane Doan. One of the nicest, most sincere, down-to-earth stars in this great game, Doan had played in only 32 playoff contests over the first 13 years of his NHL career, spent entirely with the Winnipeg/Phoenix franchise, and none since 2002. Seeing him back in the post-season, playing with a relish and exuberance second to none, has been a joy. Watching him score only the seventh playoff goal of his career in Game Two against the Red Wings was another true delight.

Unfortunately Doan is a no-go for this evening's huge Game Four in Detroit. Doan is out with an "upper body" injury, though coach Dave Tippett says it is a day-to-day injury and that this brief rest should have the captain back in there for Game 5 back home in Phoenix.

Hope so. Love watching Shane Doan getting a crack at skating in the NHL's post-season.

Posted in 2010 Stanley Cup Playoffs, Carey Price, Daniel Sedin, Jaroslav Halak, Jose Theodore, Los Angeles Kings, NHL, Phoenix Coyotes, Rink Rap, Roberto Luongo, Semyon Varlamov, Shane Doan, Vancouver Canucks | Comment Now!

Western Conference Preview

Written on 9/30/2009 by Jim Cerny

Armed with a new long-term contract, and fully healthy after being limited to 54 games a year ago, is this the year Roberto Luongo (photo right) takes the Vancouver Canucks on a long springtime playoff ride?

I think it is. But it's not going to be easy as the Western Conference shapes up to be as tough as it ever has been in 2009-10.

Here's my look into the crystal ball, with all teams listed alphabetically...

Playoff Locks (5): Calgary, Chicago, Detroit, San Jose, and Vancouver.

Ok, I know, these are the same five teams that finished Top Five in the West a year ago. Really going out on a limb, eh Jim?! But let's face it, they are going to be the best five once again. The popular pick to be No. 1 is Chicago, and I think they will have a very strong year, maybe even win the Central Division. But I do not think they will advance to the Cup Finals. I think this could be Vancouver's year to represent the West. But do not discount Detroit. The Red Wings have proven year after year the ability to replace important parts with talented newcomers. If they can once again overcome mediocre goaltending, they'll be a force in the playoffs, though I wouldn't be surprised to see them fall back a bit in the regular season. And watch out for Calgary. They're going to be real good, with an awesome Top Three on defense to compliment Miikka Kiprusoff in goal and a Jarome Iginla-led offense. Plus, I love the addition of Brent Sutter as head coach. As for the Sharks, all bets are off come April. We shall see...

Playoff Teams (3): Anaheim, Los Angeles, and St. Louis

I really like the Ducks this year, though I still think they need to figure out the goaltending situation. It looks great to have two No. 1s, but in reality it can't continue to work long term, especially if high-priced JS Giguere is the one on the bench. Adding Joffrey Lupul, Luca Sbisa, and, especially, Saku Koivu were great moves for the Ducks. LA is my surprise team here. Goaltending is still a big question mark in La-La Land, but the additions of solid character guys like Ryan Smyth and Rob Scuderi will help push this very talented young squad into a playoff spot. I think it will be a battle for the 8th seed, but the Blues will have just enough to snag it. A healthy Paul Kariya and Erik Johnson will give the Blues the boost they need.

Slipping Back (3): Columbus, Minnesota, and Nashville

I do like the Blue Jackets, especially their good young nucleus. Plus they will add a potential star in Nikita Filatov this year. But so much of their success in last year's playoff campaign was predicated on Steve Mason being great in goal. I don't see a sophomore slump from Mason, but I also don't think he'll be as good. The Blue Jackets will just miss the cut in the West. Nashville just doesn't score enough in my book, though I am intrigued to see what rookie center Colin Wilson will add to the Preds offense this year. Pekka Rinne, like Mason might slip a bit this year, and, if so, the Preds will fall further back than the 10th place they finished a year ago. Minnesota will have a totally different look without Jacques Lemaire as head coach any more. Expect a more up-tempo exciting brand of hockey. Just don't expect more victories.

No Way Jose (4): Colorado, Edmonton, Dallas, and Phoenix

The Oilers are the best of this bunch, with Nikolai Khabibulin now on the scene to solidify the goaltending. Edmonton could make a run at a playoff spot, but in the end, they are just not good enough, and did not add any vital parts to the mix during the off-season, despite the near-deal for Dany Heatley. Dallas will battle Colorado for last place in the conference. And I think the Coyotes will play well for part of the year, riding some strong play from their talented core of youngsters. But in the end, the ownership mess, bankruptcy, and questions of where the team may play in 2010-11 will bog this team down and push it out of the mix by time the Olympics roll around.

Predicted to Represent the West in the 2010 Stanley Cup Finals: Vancouver Canucks

This is a gut call, and so much can take place to sway my decision in another direction over the coming months, but I like Vancouver in the playoffs. But I just have this nagging feeling that the Red Wings will prove me wrong yet again...or that the Ducks will make a run...or the Flames, like them a lot, too...OK, like I said, Vancouver in the Finals.

Thursday: I'll take a look at the Eastern Conference.

Posted in Detroit Red Wings, NHL, Rink Rap, Roberto Luongo, Vancouver Canucks | Comment Now!

Monday Musings on Crosby, Kadri, and Canucks

Written on 9/28/2009 by Jim Cerny

Time to share a few thoughts and news tidbits as we close in on the start of the 2009-10 National Hockey League season.

First off, there doesn't seem to be any panic in Pittsburgh even though captain Sidney Crosby has missed several practices, as well as yesterday's pre-season tilt against the Red Wings, because of a sore groin. Sid the Kid skated on his own both Saturday and Sunday, and is confident he will be able to play in the season opener on Friday night against the Rangers.

Of course, the Pens will raise their 2009 Stanley Cup Championship banner that night, so I am sure that Crosby will do whatever it takes---within logical reason, of course---to be on the ice on Friday.

Crosby told the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review that his lone objective is to be ready to go by 7:30 Friday evening. "That's the goal. That's my focus now. I'll do all the things I have to, to make sure that, come Game One, I'm ready to go."

Pens GM Ray Shero told Craig Custance at the Sporting News that, "There's no reason to think that he won't be ready  for Friday."

As an aside, it amazes me how much Crosby has accomplished already in his career. He just turned 22 years old, has already appeared in two Cup Finals, served as captain of a Stanley Cup champion, produced three 100+ point seasons out of four NHL campaigns, totaled 397 points in only 290 regular season games, and has notched 63 points in 49 post-season contests.

Yet, amazingly, he is often overshadowed by his own teammate Evgeni Malkin and Caps superstar Alex Ovechkin.

Incredible.

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Nazem Kadri, who was selected in the first round---7th overall---by the Maple Leafs in June's NHL Entry Draft, is being returned to his major junior team, the London Knights, despite very impressive play in training camp and during pre-season action.

The temptation to keep Kadri---a personable and talented 18 year-old from Ontario---surely had to be there for the Leafs hierarchy, especially after he tallied three goals and two assists over six pre-season games.

Toronto head coach Ron Wilson told the Toronto Star, "Nazem is going to be a superstar in this league. We honestly believe that, but we want  him to go back to the OHL and absolutely dominate there."

That is sound long-term thinking on the Leafs part. Kadri needs to build himself up physically, first and foremost, for the daily grind of playing against grown men at the NHL level night-in and night-out. Wilson also wants him to develop the mentality of being the go-to player, as well as grow as a leader. These are all things Kadri will be able to do at London and for the Canadian Junior Team.

While Kadri did not make the varsity, it appears that fellow rookie Viktor Stalberg has. The 23 year-old, who led the Leafs with six goals in the pre-season, apparently has done enough to win a spot on the Opening Night roster, according to Wilson.

"In my mind's eye, Stalberg will be in the starting lineup Thursday night (against the Montreal Canadiens)," stated Wilson.

As for Tyler Bozek, the other heralded rookie in Leafs camp, he survived the latest round of cuts, though that has not guaranteed him a final roster spot just yet. Bozek, who is also 23, has played well, showing flashes of being a very competant two-way center in the NHL. Wilson and GM Brian Burke just have to decide if he needs a bit more seasoning. Their final decision should come by midweek.

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Had the chance to watch the Canucks-Flames pre-season contest on Saturday night, and came away with a couple of observations.

First off, what a fun finish to this one. A 1-1 tight-defensive affair that all of a sudden opened up in the final minutes of regulation and throughout overtime. Roberto Luongo scrambling to make several saves in a wild battle by his crease, and Miikka Kiprusoff staring down several Vancouver scoring chances. Then during the shootout, Luongo and Kiprusoff made it look too easy stopping round after round of shooters. Finally, Calgary's Olli Jokinen skated in and cranked a hard slap shot from fifteen feet away at Luongo, who made the save, and then angrily stared down Jokinen as he skated away. Ryan Kesler returned the favor for the Canucks by slapping one up high and off the shoulder of Kiprusoff, who, like Luongo, was not amused. Fun stuff, that should help continue to fuel the regular season rivalry between these two teams.

Oh yeah Mason Raymond---keep an eye on him this season---eventually won it for the Canucks.

My second observation is that Vancouver---and not the Blackhaws, the popular choice---could be the team to come out of the Western Conference in late May, early June. And I am not discounting top teams like the Sharks or Ducks, and certainly not underestimating the Red Wings, either, but this Canucks squad has the pieces to put together a nice, long run.

Pre-season records and statistics, by and large, mean nothing. But Vancouver was unbeaten in regulation---posting a 7-0-2 mark---during the exhibition schedule. And they averaged well more than three goals per game, while surrendering only 20 goals in nine contests.

If Luongo can remain healhty---which he was not a year ago---this could be a special season for the Canucks. They have a nice blend of veterans and young players still coming into their own. And I love the addition of a real pro, a real proven winner, in Mikael Samuelsson.

Posted in Nazem Kadri, NHL, Pittsburgh Penguins, Rink Rap, Roberto Luongo, Sidney Crosby, Toronto Maple Leafs, Vancouver Canucks, Viktor Stalberg | Comment Now!

Gillis Gets Defensive in Vancouver

Written on 8/28/2009 by Jim Cerny

When word was out that the Vancouver Canucks had a pair of press announcements to make today, it seemed that the inevitable was finally taking place: that the club had come to terms with franchise goalie Roberto Luongo on a long-term contract extension.

Thing is, neither announcement was about Luongo. Though you could argue that both were made with Luongo in mind.

Posted in Brad Lukowich, Christian Ehrhoff, Dany Heatley, Mathieu Schneider, Mike Gillis, NHL, Roberto Luongo, San Jose Sharks, Vancouver Canucks | Comment Now!